Probability PIG

Introduction

• In this game, students take shots while incrementally increasing their distance from the net. Each time they increase their distance from the net, they roll a die. The number they roll represents the number of points they will bank if they can make the next shot. The player who reaches 50 points first wins.

Lesson

• To begin, the players line up at half court facing the net.
• The first player walks towards the net and stands at spot #1 (see Appendix A). The player rolls the die and notes the number on their score tracking sheet (Appendix B).
• The player takes their first shot from this spot. If they make the shot, they accumulate the number of points that they rolled on the die.
• The player then takes a step back to spot #2 and rolls the die again.
• After rolling the die, the player can decide whether they want to attempt the next shot or instead end their turn and bank the points they have accumulated up to this point.
       o If they decide to bank their points, they pass the ball to the next player in the line and go to the end of the line.
       o If they miss the shot, their total goes down to zero points and they go back to the end of the line.
       o If they make the shot, they add the additional points to their tracking sheet and repeat the process again until they miss a shot or choose to end their turn.
• When all players have had one turn, the first player starts again at spot #1 near the net.
• The game continues until a player reaches 50 points. The player to 50 points wins the game.

Suggested Questions

• Is it worth taking a shot when you are standing at the three-pointer line (spot #13) and you roll a one on the die? Why or why not?
• Do you believe in a thing such as a “hot hand” (a “hot hand” refers to when a player gets multiple consecutive shots in, also known as “being on a roll”)? Why or why not?
       o The responses to this question will help identify whether the children understand independent and dependent events.
       o If they answer yes, they may not recognize that each shot is an independent event and believe that getting a shot in once increases the chances of getting a shot in the next time.
• Ask students to consider the difficult of shots in two different positions. Are they equally likely to make the shot from spot #6 as they were in spot #5, even if they are “on a roll”?
      o If they answer no, ask them to explain their reasoning and observe if they refer to the independence of events.
• If you had a “hot hand” during the activity, did it influence your decision to end or continue your turn?
• If a child decides to bank their points after rolling a big number on the die, ask them to share why they made that decision.